荒廢了一段時間沒有寫文章，之前本來預計將來生活會有些變化，不過實在是人生大事，要小心規劃，計劃也一直按現實情況調整，所以一直都很忙！幸好暫時一切也還安好，希望也能盡快達成夢想！
好吧，這個blog的主題是FIRE，那就是「Financial Independence, Retire Early」的縮寫。其實本來對於寫一些很入門的東西有點抗拒，畢竟只要簡單在搜尋器上搜尋一下，就已經能夠找到很多相關的資料，自己當初也是這樣學的。那就總會覺得，既然網絡上就那麼多文章可以參考了，我還在陳腔濫調，好像在浪費大家的時間。
二來，其實自己還是比較想側重從情感的層面去出發，去推廣FIRE這個概念，這個也與不同人的不同人格會有點關係，日後應該會再談。另一方面，對自己的研究能力還是有信心，畢竟自己也上過研究所，事實上對於FIRE，自己也做了一些原創的研究、分析數據，得出一些原創的結果，覺得也能對FIRE這個運動帶來一點小突破，日後必定會分享。不過，又覺得論到研究實力，比我更強的人實在大有人在，我其中一位最祟拜的FIRE blogger前輩，就是PhD級數的人馬，他做的研究，我覺得真的很厲害。要是我只向著研究這方面進發，恐怕我能作出的貢獻也實在有限。
但我相信別人有沒有比我更強也不是最重要。雖然FIRE這個概念對大部分人來說還是挺新的東西，但實際上這個理論已經存在了一段時間，背後有很強的學術基礎去支持。那結果就是，對於一般人來說，只要參考現有、已被發表的研究，就已經足夠去做一個良好的人生規劃，我們只要把這些資料整合一下，再適當地推廣就可以了；而學術上的突破還是絕對重要的，但從向一般普羅大眾推廣FIRE的角度出發，我認為從情感方面說服，再配合適量的客觀數據，比起找方法把財務自由的成功率由99.85%提升至99.93%之類這樣的研究，影響力更大。
寫了那麼多還沒有入正題，首先我利益申報一下，其實我已經FIRE了 (準確一點說，我只是FI，暫時還沒有RE，因為我還在工作)，而且其實我早在2019年就已經FIRE了。
我相信每個人都想盡快達到財務自由，那FIRE實際上要怎樣才做得到？怎樣執行？通常故事都會由「4%法則」說起。
「4%法則」的概念很簡單，就是如果你的生活支出只佔你總資產的4%以下，之後每年支出都按通脹調整，那麼你就能夠無憂無慮地退休了。例如假設你每月支出1萬港元，一年就是12萬，除以4%，就等於300萬。那就是說，你只要有300萬就可以財務自由了！應該比一般人想像中都少很多啊，是天大的好消息。
「4%法則」的數學原理也很簡單，以你有$100的本金為例，假設投資回報有7%，而通脹率是3%，那麼你第一年的投資回報就有$7，而支出是$4，剛好餘下$3，本金就變成了$103，剛好能夠追上通脹。只要這樣水平的投資回報和支出能夠一直維持下去，錢就永遠都用不完了。
當然，看到這裡，通常就會有一批人跳出來說「開玩笑吧怎麼可能投資回報7%」、「股票騙人的」、「又一位牛市股神」之類。事實上，由1871年至2021年，以標普500指數為例，年化回報是9.37%，只要「呆呆的」持有指數ETF，就可以做到這樣的回報。（p.s. 關於指數基金的討論，也是其中一樣我希望將來能夠寫一點篇幅的，現在以中文內容來說，綠角財經筆記裡面的文章是其中一位表表者，事實上，我也從綠角大神身上獲益良多。）
這樣的研究，實際上在二十多年前已經有人發表了，有興趣的話，可以參考：
2. https://www.retailinvestor.org/pdf/Bengen1.pdf
3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_study
當然，我以上這樣說，其實還是有點取巧的。實際上，我認為將來的投資回報的確未必能達到6-7%這樣的水平，更遑論是歷史的9.37%回報。所以，其實我自己也是不使用「4%法則」的，而是用一些更為安全的法則。事實上，我見過其他參與FIRE討論的人，大多數人也是不使用「4%法則」的。要訂立一些更安全的法則也很簡單，例如，只要把「4%法則」簡單改為「3%法則」，安全邊際就會更大。當然，這樣需要的本金也會相應的增加，例如同樣是12萬的每年支出預算，如果使用「3%法則」，需要的本金就會變成400萬。
不過，對於入門接觸FIRE這個概念的人來說，我認為以「4%法則」作為切入點也是適合的。今天打的字數也挺多了，是時候讓大家消化一下。
有用工具：
1. 退休計算器
後記：之前實在太忙了，但今天是這個blog成立的一週年，覺得如果再不寫，實在說不過去！雖然這不是我的職業，我也未必是一個很好的寫手，但這裡卻代表著我的理想、我的價值！對我來說，這一天已經變得比自己的生日更重要了，即使再忙，還是希望將來每年至少這天都能寫點東西的！（但絕對希望將來的頻率不是一年只寫一次！）
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It had been a while since I started my blog. Been really busy recently, many things happened, anticipated major changes in my life but I have to plan about the details carefully! Luckily my life is always fine and I hope that everything will be settled down soon! May my dream come true!
Okay, so the theme of this blog is FIRE, the acronym of “Financial Independence, Retire Early”. Actually I’m not excited by writing something that is really a cliché. Well, we can simply search for more information on Google. Indeed, I learnt many about FIRE in this way. If I keep on writing some clichés, I would feel like I am wasting your time.
Moreover, I want to focus more on the emotional side and popularize the idea of FIRE in this way. It is also related to different types of personalities. I think I will write about it in the future. Of course, as a former grad school student, I am also confident with my research skills. I had done some independent research on FIRE which I believe could bring a small breakthrough to the movement, and I’m sure I will share about it in the future. However, there are also a lot of people who are definitely smarter than me! Indeed, one of the fellow FIRE blogger who I admire has a PhD, and I really admire his researches. Thus, if I only focus on research, I think I may not be able to give too much contribution to the FIRE movement.
But I believe that it’s not important whether there’s anybody better than me. Although the concept of FIRE is still relatively new for most people, the theory behind it had been around for a while. There had been strong academic evidence to support it. As a result, for most of us, if we just want to have a reasonably good plan with our retirement, we just need to look up to existing researches and follow the recommended rules. Of course, it is still important to have more breakthrough researches on FIRE. However, to persuade an ordinary guy about FIRE, it is more effective by introducing it on an emotional standpoint supported with scientific facts. In contrast, one may not be too excited for knowing new ways that increase our chance of success from something like 99.85% to 99.93%.
A little bit of disclosure first, I had FIRE’d in 2019 (to be more precise, I am FI, but I haven’t retired because I’m still working).
I think everyone would like to be financially independent as soon as possible. So how could we achieve it? What should we do? The story usually start from the “4% rule”.
The idea of “4% rule” is simple. It states that if your annual expense is no more than 4% of your liquid net worth, and assume that you increase your expenditure by the rate of inflation every year, then you can retire immediately without any worries. For example, if you spend $2500 USD per month, then your annual expense is $30K. Dividing $30K by 4%, you get $750K. That means you *just* need $750K to retire comfortably. Perhaps this figure is much less than expected? Then that’s a really good news!
The math behind the “4% rule” is simple. Let’s imagine if you have $100, your rate of investment return is 7% and the inflation rate is 3%. So, you earn $7 on your investments in the first year while your expenditure is $4. Thus, you still have $3 of your return left and your net worth is $103 now, good enough to keep up with inflation. If you are able to maintain this pattern of return and expenditure, then you will never run out of money.
Of course, up to this point, some of you may pop up and yell “Investment return of 7%? Is it a joke?”, “Stocks are scam”, “Another bull market guru”. Actually, for the period from 1871 to 2021, the annualized return of the S&P 500 index was 9.37%. So, you could simply buy and hold an index fund to obtain such return. (p.s. For discussion about index funds, it is also a topic that I want to cover in the future. For more reference, you could find sites like Bogleheads. I actually learnt a lot there too.)
Such research had been around for more than 20 years. If you are interested, you may refer to:
2. https://www.retailinvestor.org/pdf/Bengen1.pdf
3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_study
Despite this, my rhetoric somewhat tricked you. Actually, I do think we may not be able to maintain investment return like 6-7% in the future, let alone the historical 9.37% rate. Thus, I never use the “4% rule” myself and I use a safer rule. Indeed, in most discussions about FIRE that I had encountered, only a few uses the “4% rule”. Fortunately, it is also easy to set up some safer rules. For example, by modifying the “4% rule” to “3% rule”, then you will get a bigger margin for error. However, the drawback is that you will need to build a bigger portfolio. For example, if your annual expense remains at $30K per year, then the net worth you need will increase to $1M, assuming that you use the 3% rule.
Anyway, for those who are really new to the idea of FIRE, I think the “4% rule” is a suitable starting point. Okay, it had almost been 1000 words today! Let’s give you guys a break to digest a bit!
Tool(s) that you may find it useful:
1. A simple retirement calculator
Afterword: Although I’m really busy, but today is the 1-year anniversary of my blog! I really have to write something! Although this is not my career or I may not be a good writer, but this blog really represents all my dreams and my values! I view this day more important than my own birthday! No matter how busy I am, I hope I will at least write something on this day every year! (But hopefully I will be able to write it more than once a year!)
